Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios: the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7–2.9 jC in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40–51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. PACS: C53, Forecasting and other model applications; F18, Emission trading and environment; Q2, Renewable resources and conservation; Environmental management
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